Storms and Weather » Severe Weather

Re: SE Qld / NE NSW Severe Storm Potential 15th October 2011

Mon, 17 Oct 2011 04:11:21 +0000

Hi all,

All in all a good day up in QLD, have attached some of my video captures of mostly the same scenes as in Jimmy's pics above.

....so, some of the earlier GFS runs (eg on Weds and Thurs) indicated good directional shear from 500-850mb winds suggesting a favourable situation for supercell development on Saturday afternoon across NSW northern rivers and across into South east Queensland. There were at times hints of a surface low developing in response to the upper level trough, or otherwise generally good turning between the sfc and 850mb. This raised a few eyebrows, so Jimmy and I decided on a long haul chase up into northern NSW as a start.

It soon became evident with each progressive model run that there would be quite unidirectional shear between 500-850mb, so the expectation of significant severe weather was kind of diminished by Friday -- but we were already well on the road so there was nothing to loose!

On chase day we sat at Boonah from the late morning. A line developed on radar out west of Texas (QLD) so we were hoping that isolated storms would initiate ahead of the line, which was advancing fairly quickly. A brief period of NE winds were encouraging and eventually isolated storms did develop:

...and one of these initially intensified quite rapidly with an inflow band

The problem was that the anvils were coming across, which suppressed what heating we had, and this conspired with the NW 850 winds to make these initially promising storms struggle. After giving up on these plan B was the northern end of the line that was now moving over the metro area.

We navigated our way around the city and got some good footage of the approaching shelf and the base structure of the more isolated cells on the northern end that produced large hail.

We missed our planned exit to head north to the airport and beyond and got caught in traffic as the line hit, with some small hail thrown in (1 to 1.5 cm) at Macgregor. Tags: Anvils, Australian Severe Storms, Weather Events and Storm Chasing, Base Structure, Boonah, Eyebrows, Favourable Situation, Gfs, Hail, Inflow, Long Haul, Metro Area, Northern Nsw, Northern Rivers, Plan B, Progressive Model, Saturday Afternoon, Severe Weather, Sfc, South East Queensland, Storms, Upper Level Trough

Tornadoes Slight risk for the TX/OK panhandles today! Hurricane Jova to make landfall in Mexico toni

Tue, 11 Oct 2011 20:00:20 +0000

Slight risk for the TX/OK panhandles today! Hurricane Jova to make landfall in Mexico tonight!


Today, there is a slight risk for severe weather for portions of the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles, and a smaller risk further north from Kansas into Nebraska. The Storm Prediction center has low probabilities for a tornado/hail/wind for the slight risk area shown on the left. The latest RUC analysis (17z) actually shows the greatest potential for diurnal storms into Kansas and Nebraska between 23-0z (6-7 p.m.) where forcing is stronger and the cap is weaker. Forecasted hodographs in west-central Kansas are supportive of supercells with large hail and damaging winds being the main threats--but an isolated tornado around dusk can not be ruled out. Further south into the panhandles, the same is also possible, but storm initiation is still in question due to weaker forcing and mid/high level clouds which could hinder instability potential. Stay tuned, as storm chasers will be providing live video streams across the area, so be sure to tune in later as things unfold!

Hurricane Jova has weakened some (currently at 100 mph max sustained winds or a Cat 2 hurricane) but is still expected to cause havoc along the pacific coast between Barra de Navidad and Puerto Vallarta late tonight. It could dump as much as 20 inches in some spots in Mexico and could cause significant flooding from the storm surge as well. The map, above, shows the projected path of Hurricane Jova and current warnings for it by the National Hurricane Center.
Stay tuned for more chase reports from last week as October treated a few of us to some great structure and funnels!



http://www.tornadovideos.net/component/content/article/1-latest-news/1398-slight-risk-for-portions-of-txok-panhandles-today-hurricane-jova-to-make-landfall-in-mexico-tonigh

Tags: Barra De Navidad, Central Kansas, Chase Reports, Funnels, Hurricane Jova, Landfall, Level Clouds, Live Video Streams, National Hurricane Center, Nbsp Nbsp Nbsp Nbsp Nbsp, Oklahoma Panhandles, Risk Area, Ruc Analysis, Severe Weather, Storm Chasers, Storm Initiation, Storm Prediction Center, Storm Surge, Supercells, Texas And Oklahoma, Tornado Alley Outbreaks and Severe Weather Worldwide

Tornadoes Slight risk for much of the High Plains tomorrow!

Wed, 05 Oct 2011 22:00:14 +0000

Slight risk for much of the High Plains tomorrow!

http://www.tornadovideos.net/images/stories/day2otlk_1730.gif" />Modest moisture return and weak instability will limit a more widespread severe weather event tomorrow afternoon/evening, but all modes of severe weather are expected--including the risk of isolated tornadoes. The photo, left, shows the areas highlighted, in yellow ,by the Storm Prediction Center for tomorrow for the greatest severe weather threat. Current surface observations show mid to upper 50 dewpoints in the Texas Panhandle with lower 60 dew points onshore near the Texas gulf coast. Moisture return will try and make its way up from the gulf, but is rather shallow, and will advect northward as far north as western South Dakota by midday tomorrow.

With the approach of a strong mid-level trough and strong surface heating beneath cool, mid-level temps--this will result in instability of 500-1000 j/kg for much of the highlighted area. This could be enough for the risk for large hail, strong winds and the possibility of a tornado or two. The two areas, I believe, that have the greatest threat for tornadoes are in the southern target (towards dusk) in the Texas Panhandle into southwest Kansas and somewhere in between I-70 and I-80 in Kansas and Nebraska.

The forecasted LCL's (cloud bases) are rather high in the southern target, but a higher elevation, deeper moisture/stronger instability under a strongly-sheared environment could be enough for a tornado or two, possibly just after dark. The more likely area for a daylight tornado, would be in the early stages of storm initiation in western South Dakota/ NW Nebraska with lower LCLs (cloud bases), but given the weak instability/moisture return and backing of the mid-level winds, strong winds and large hail seem more likely. It's a tough forecast for those storm chasing tomorrow, but my current plan is to head west on I-80 and determine tomorrow morning a more defined target.

Stay tuned as numerous storm chasers will be out and about in the slight risk area and will be streaming LIVE video[/url] as things unfold. Friday, will once again bring another chance of severe weather a little further east!

http://www.tornadovideos.net/component/content/article/1-latest-news/1397-slight-risk-for-much-of-the-high-plains-tomorrow
Tags: Dew Points, Dewpoints, High Plains, Mid Level, Nbsp Nbsp Nbsp Nbsp Nbsp, Nebraska Lt, Photo Left, Severe Weather, Southwest Kansas, Storm Initiation, Storm Prediction Center, Strong Winds, Surface Observations, Target, Texas Gulf Coast, Texas Panhandle, Tomorrow Afternoon, Tornado Alley Outbreaks and Severe Weather Worldwide, Tornadoes, Weather Event, Weather Threat

Tornadoes Severe weather by the end of next week?

Wed, 28 Sep 2011 22:00:16 +0000

Severe weather by the end of next week?

http://www.tornadovideos.net/images/stories/gfs_3_2011092812_f204_wspd_500_mb.png" />http://www.tornadovideos.net/images/stories/gfs_3_2011092812_f204_dptc_850_mb.png" />

The long-range models have been somewhat consistent on bringing a large, west-coast trough into the Central Plains by the middle/late part of next week. While still a long ways out, the potential will be there for a severe weather outbreak and possibly a tornado outbreak for portions of the Central/Southern Plains including Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas, but it's too far out to get excited, just yet. The severe threat could continue into the Upper Midwest by next weekend, depending on mesoscale details that won't be unkinked until late next week. Stay tuned as this looks to be an active fall season and much needed rain, for drought-stricken areas, could return by late next week.

http://www.tornadovideos.net/component/content/article/1-latest-news/1395-severe-weather-by-the-end-of-next-week
Tags: Central Plains, Img, Kansas Oklahoma, Lt, Midwest, Nbsp Nbsp Nbsp Nbsp Nbsp, Nebraska, News Weather, Png, Rain, Range Models, Severe Weather, Stricken Areas, Tornado Alley Outbreaks and Severe Weather Worldwide, Tornado Outbreak, Tornadoes, Trough, Upper Midwest, Weather Outbreak, West Coast, Wspd

Tornadoes AMAZING Supercell Yesterday, More Severe Weather Expected Today!

Thu, 18 Aug 2011 20:00:12 +0000

AMAZING Supercell Yesterday, More Severe Weather Expected Today!

http://www.tornadovideos.net/images/stories/mullen_1.jpg" height="200" width="300" />

Andy Gabrielson and I were on a storm that formed near Merriman, Nebraska and trekked southeast across Cherry county into Hooker county, Nebraska yesterday, giving us a beautifully-sculpted supercell towards dusk. We also experienced some small hail and some strong winds before the storm fell apart near Tryon, Nebraska! Extremely large hail destroyed vehicles yesterday on I-90 in South Dakota up to baseball-sized and evidently caused some accidents there! To the left, is a photo of the supercell south of Mullen, Nebraska

Today, the potential is, again, there for a few tornadoes and very large hail across portions of Nebraska, South Dakota and possibly Minnesota and Iowa. We're currently sitting in Springview, Nebraska, waiting on initiation in the vicinity and expect a few supercells within the area. The map, below, shows the foreceasted RUC EHIs in the area at 0z (or 7 p.m. CST), where we expect storms to initiate and move along. Be sure to check out the live streams and Reed's Facebook fan page for more live streaming video and video blogs from the field!

http://www.tornadovideos.net/images/stories/ruc_255_2011081818_f06_ehi1_surface.png" height="215" width="300" />

http://www.tornadovideos.net/component/content/article/1-latest-news/1379-amazing-supercell-yesterday-more-severe-weather-expected-today
Tags: Cherry County, Facebook, Fan Page, Gabrielson, Hail, Hooker County, Initiation, Live Streams, Mullen Nebraska, Nbsp Nbsp Nbsp Nbsp Nbsp, Nebraska Lt, Quot, Severe Weather, Springview Nebraska, Strong Winds, Supercells, Tornado Alley Outbreaks and Severe Weather Worldwide, Tornadoes, Tryon Nebraska, Vicinity, Weather Today