Severe weather possible today – Moderate Risk issued by SPC
         

<div><img style="float: left; margin: 5px;" alt="day1otlk_1630" height="175" width="250" src="http://www.tornadovideos.net/images/stories/2011/february/day1otlk_1630.gif" /><img style="float: left; margin: 5px;" alt="ruc_255_2011022417_f07_hlcy3_surface" height="107" width="150" src="http://www.tornadovideos.net/images/stories/2011/february/ruc_255_2011022417_f07_hlcy3_surface.png" />A dynamic mid/upper-level storm system will race northeastward over the southern Plains and Mid-South today, bringing  the possibility of severe weather to parts of Oklahoma, Arkansas and the  Mid-South region. As dewpoints climb into the 60s along I-40 in Oklahoma and  Arkansas, a surface low pressure system will deepen in response to the  approaching mid/upper-level disturbance, then translate eastward across the  MO/AR border by this evening. This surface low will lift an associated warm  front into the Ozarks by this evening, progressing northeastward toward the Ohio  River Valley overnight.  Warm, moist air across the warm sector — east of the  dryline in TX and OK, and south of the warm front — will result in weak  instability, but low-level wind shear will be significant across the Ozarks and  mid-South into Thursday night. Although great uncertainty remains as to whether  adequate destabilization will result, the Storm Prediction Center has  highlighted this area with a Moderate Risk for today. However, the process  of a heightened severe weather threat developing later today will hinge on  whether early, ongoing precip can give way to wide areas of  clearing, and greater instability can materializes, as the threat for discrete  supercells and tornadoes will be higher across portions of the Mid-South in this  case. Regardless, severe storms appear likely across east Arkansas, and the  western portions of Kentucky, Tennessee and Mississippi later this evening.  Heavy rains are also of great concern, as the lower Ohio into mid-Mississippi  Valley area could <a target="_blank" title="HPC" href="http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i12.gif">see 3+" [/url]over a relatively short time frame.</div>
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<div>We will also be watching a separate storm system which<a target="_blank" title="TwisterData forecasting products" href="http://www.twisterdata.com"><span style="color: #33cccc;"><strong> models</strong></span>[/url] suggest will  impact the same general areas by Sunday. This second system appears to be the more potent of the two at this time.</div>
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<div>Finally, don't forget that the<span style="color: #ff9900;"> <a target="_blank" title="Minnesota Storm Chasing Convention" href="http://www.mnstormchasingconvention.com/  "><span style="color: #ff9900;">Minnesota Storm Chasing Conventio…